Showing posts with label Simplicity. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Simplicity. Show all posts

Friday, March 25, 2011

Strategic Planning Analogy #384: Salty Popcorn


THE STORY
Back when I was a young boy, I was part of the Cub Scouts, the younger version of the Boy Scouts. One time, the leaders took a group of us young Cub Scouts to a scout campground to spend the weekend camping in tents.

One night during that weekend, a few of us boys got hungry for some popcorn, so we quietly left our tent and sneaked over to the rustic kitchen. Without any adults to supervise us, we made a big batch of popcorn. This was in the days before microwaves. I’m surprised we didn’t burn the place down.

One of the boys wanted to be in charge of salting the popcorn. He put practically an entire box of salt on the popcorn. This made the popcorn so salty that it was inedible. So we got the bright idea that if we made a second batch of popcorn and mixed it with the first, the whole thing would taste good. So we made a second batch and mixed the two. It was still too salty to eat.

So we decided to mix in a third large batch of popcorn. The end result was still extremely salty, but almost tolerable, if you only ate one handful and had a lot of water to wash down the salt.

Of course, by now we had a huge supply of popcorn—more than we could possibly eat. So we went outside and yelled that we had free popcorn for anyone who wanted it. Suddenly, all these other Cub Scouts showed up to get some popcorn. They each took only one handful, because it was too salty. But eventually that got rid of most of the popcorn.

Unfortunately, our yelling also woke up the leaders who were supposed to be supervising us. They weren’t very happy when they found out what we did.

THE ANALOGY
At the campground, we had something bad—over-salted popcorn. We thought we could make it good by adding something good to the mix—unsalted popcorn. However, we kept adding more and more good and the end result was still bad. In the end, all we had was a bigger pile of bad. We would have been much better off just throwing away the first batch and starting over.

It seems like a lot of businesses act like I did at that campout. They have a bad situation on their hands—not enough growth, not enough profits, etc. And just as I tried to fix my bad popcorn by adding new popcorn to the mix, these businesses try to fix their bad business situation by adding new businesses to the mix. It could be line extensions, diversifications, or other types of new product introductions. Whatever the means, the focus is on growing the top line with new lines of business. Unfortunately, the net results are usually still below expectations. They probably would have been better off if they had focused on tossing out the bad businesses rather than adding the new businesses to the already toxic business situation.

THE PRINCIPLE
The principle here is that our strategic goal should not be to become bigger, but to become more profitable. And many times, the most effective way to increase profits is by shrinking the scope of our business. Tossing away the elements which destroy huge amounts profitability can often provide a greater improvement than layering on more elements which are only marginally profitable.

Just as it takes a huge amount of new popcorn to overcome a small salty batch, it can take a huge amount of new business to overcome a dysfunctional business base—probably more than you can afford to undertake (either in money or manpower). Rather than adding, it may be more desirable to subtract.

Proctor & Gamble Example
Think about Procter & Gamble. Back at the beginning of the 1990s, they had 31 varieties of Head & Shoulders shampoo and 52 versions of Crest dental products. All of those were a lot of additional versions which drove up the costs of manufacturing, distribution, inventory management, marketing, management and so on. So P&G decided to cut its variety.

By the end of that decade, P&G had cut the number of its products by one-third. In hair care alone, the variety was cut in half. So how did all that cutting impact sales? Well, the market share in hair care went up nearly five points and overall P&G sales grew by one-third during the mid 1990s.

And while sales were rising, costs were dropping, because a lot of costs can be eliminated when you eliminate all of the inefficiencies from excessive variety.

And it didn’t stop there. Back in December of 2010, P&G leaders talked to analysts about the benefits from even further simplifying their business. In 2008, P&G had 500 manufacturing platforms. By 2014, they plan on having only 150. That is expected to produce savings of about a half a billion dollars.

They are also going to simplify the processes used to run the business. By moving to fewer, but stronger regional centers over the next three years, they expect annual savings of $160 million. By replacing bad inefficiencies with new technology, they anticipate annual savings of about $50 million per year, not to mention other ways to cut which will add even more.

When you add it all up, we’re talking about an annual increase to the bottom line for P&G of hundreds of millions of dollars. Just imagine how many new businesses P&G would have to add to their mix to get the same amount of net impact on the bottom line. Keep in mind that a lot of that new innovation would probably cannibalize other P&G businesses and add to the complexity costs of the company. So these new businesses would have to create even more profits than this to make up for that cannibalization and added complexity costs.

It’s like that popcorn. Rather than trying to add on layer upon layer of new business (unsalted popcorn) to the mix, P&G threw out the salt that was causing the problems in the first place (too much variety, too much overhead, too many platforms, etc.). Getting rid of the salt (bad costs of excessive complexity) got to a good flavor much faster than heaping a lot more popcorn (marginal business) on top of the bloated cost structure. Tossing away can be far more profitable than adding on.

Wilson and Perumal, in their book “Waging War on Complexity Costs” claim that a focus on cutting out complexity can reduce a typical business’ cost structure by 15 to 35%. Can you imagine how much new business innovation would have to occur to create a similar improvement to your profitability?

Pressure to Innovate
Yet the current pressure in the business world is to increase innovation and pump even more new businesses into the company’s bloated product pipeline. Everywhere you look in the business press, one sees the thrust to innovate more and create more lines of business.

Remember, innovation can be very expensive, and about 80% of new business ventures fail. And, as P&G and others have found out, added variety doesn’t necessarily lead to additional net sales. It may just spread the same sales volume across more product lines (causing less volume per line—fewer economies of scale).

Worse yet, new ventures often lead to added overall business complexity, which increases the costs for every product you sell, even the old established ones. So you may be hurting the profitability of the status quo product mix almost as fast as you are adding marginal profits from the incremental variety. In other words, your business mix will still be too salty even though you add a lot of new popcorn to the mix.

Therefore, when you are having your strategy sessions, don’t just focus on ways to grow the top line. Don’t let the current wave of innovation pressure you into seeing additional new product lines as your only strategic option.

Instead, consider spending time strategizing around the benefits of cutting out complexity and redundancy. Look for ways to simplify your processes through standardization. Consider places to eliminate the variety and scope of what you offer. In other words, look for ways to get rid of your excess saltiness.

Yes, this approach can potentially hurt top line growth rates. But, it can make your bottom line skyrocket. And, at the end of the day, if profits are growing wildly, the market will reward you very well.

SUMMARY
When seeking to improve your business performance, don’t just look at strategic options which attempt to increase sales through new product innovation. Instead, consider ways to eliminate marginal businesses and all the needless complexities they bring. Shrinking the business and tossing away the bad can be a quicker and more powerful way to improve profits.

FINAL THOUGHTS
With all the emphasis on the word “innovation”, I figure we need another word to counteract it in the discussion. Innovation comes from the Latin—“in” for “in” and “nova” for “new”. In other words innovation is about bringing something new into the business. But what about the idea of taking something old out of the business? I fiddled around on the internet and invented my own Latin-like word: “eximotraditionalis.” This word means to remove some the stuff you traditionally have been doing. Hopefully, “eximotraditionalis” will become as popular in the business press as “innovation” (but somehow I doubt it).

Friday, September 12, 2008

Analogy #207: Eight Questions


THE STORY
When I was watching the Olympics, I saw a lot of relatively obscure sports. And of course, they only televise the more popular events. There were many more not shown on TV that were even more obscure. It made me ask the question, how great is it to win a gold medal in a sport that very few people care about and very few people compete in? I’m sure the person’s mother is impressed, but who else? Virtually no fame, no glory and no money.

It is one thing to be rated the best in an athletic endeavor which many hundreds of thousands of people participate. It is quite another thing to be rated the best when only a few dozen others are trying to do the same thing.

Since the Olympics, I’ve heard about a sport called Mountain Unicycling, or MUni, for short. This “sport” consists of the riding of a unicycle up and down steep, rocky hills and mountains. It reminded me of someone I knew in college who liked to ride his unicycle up and down the steps in a stairwell at the dorms. I’m sure it takes lots of practice and great athleticism to become great at MUni, but being the best at something very few care about doesn’t get you much, career-wise. Nice hobby, but keep your day job.

THE ANALOGY
One of the most important elements in strategic planning is choosing your strategic position. Where do you want to stake your claim? Where do you want to win?

It is a lot like an athlete deciding which sport they want to excel in. Some athletes pick obscure sports to excel in. It may create inner joy at excelling in the sport, but it doesn’t provide much of a financially fulfilling career path.

The same is true in business. You can position your firm or brand to win at something which is so obscure that it never provides an adequate return on investment (the market is too small). Or you can win at something in business where the business model does not lead to profits. For example, Facebook may be a great social networking site, and I think there are a lot of people who have worked very hard at Facebook, but I doubt it will ever be a good return on investment. Facebook may have more in common with MUni—fun for the participants, but no pot of money for the investors.

Some entire industries are bad choices. NYU professor Aswath Damodaran has a web site with lots of statistics, including annual rankings of industries by their return on capital. These statistics show that there are many industries which consistently have terrible returns on capital, often less than the cost of capital, year after year (Property & Casualty Insurance, Home Construction, and Airlines come to mind). Winning in these industries is like winning an obscure sport. It may feel good to be the best, but there isn’t usually much of a financial reward.

To have a successful athletic career, you not only have to be very good at your sport, but you have to pick a sport that can support successful careers. The same is true for businesses. Winning in business has to be more than just being the best at what you do. It has to be doing well at something worth doing (from a financial point of view).

THE PRINCIPLE
The principle here is that success is most predicated on choosing the right position. All other strategic issues pale in importance. Choose the right position and it is hard to mess up execution enough to not have a measure of financial success. Choose the wrong position and even exceptionally superior effort may not yield much of a benefit.

There is no universally right position for everyone or every business. Just as certain physical builds lead one to be better at certain sports (such as tallness and basketball), individual business characteristics will help dictate which position is right for your particular situation. To help find out whether a position is right for you, I suggest asking yourself the following eight questions.

1) Is the position Desirable?
At the end of the day, a successful position needs customers who desire someone holding that position. In short, do people want what you are trying to sell? Sure, people desire cars, but if you pick a position like Yugo (cars so cheap that they are unreliable and unsafe) you have chosen an undesirable position within the automobile industry. Make sure there is a market for what you want to stand for (sounds obvious, but this rule is broken quite frequently).

2) Is the position Sizeable?
To make a profit, you need enough sales to cover all your costs plus a little bit more. You may have found a position that several people find very desirable, but if there are not enough of them, you will fail. Going back to the sports analogy, the profits come from ticket sales and TV revenues. If not enough people desire your sport, you will not get enough ticket sales or TV revenues to make a profit. Therefore, make sure you have chosen a position that is desired by enough people (big enough size) to make the business model work.

3) Is the position Ownable?
Often times, positions which are highly desirable by large numbers of people are already taken. For example, being known for “selling everyday essentials for the lowest prices” is a great position. Unfortunately, Wal-Mart already owns the position. I doubt you would be able to take that position away from them. You will lose and they will win.

Position ownership takes place in the mind of the consumers. Once they conclude that a position is strongly owned by someone else, it is nearly impossible to get them to change their minds. It is a losing battle.

The better approach is to create a position (desirable, sizable) which is not already taken. Then, you have the potential to own that position. Don’t follow the leader and copy their position. Then you will just be inferior at what the leader does. Instead, find a desirable point of differentiation. A place you can call your own.

4) Is the position Preferable?
The most frequent question I ask when critiquing positions is this: Why should a customer prefer your position versus what the competition is offering? People may like your position, but if they like the competitor’s position more, you’ve lost. For at least some sizable segment of the population, your position needs to be their favorite position.

Decisions are not made in a vacuum. Your position is being compared by consumers to other options. People make trade-offs and chose the position that most closely matches their preferred trade-off. Choose your position in light of the alternatives.

5) Is the position Achievable?
Just because a position looks great on paper (desirable, sizable, ownable, preferrable) does not mean that you will be able to pull it off in reality. For example, I may want to have the position of selling an automobile which is not only the best quality sports car in the world, but the lowest priced automobile in the world. Since it is probably impossible to achieve such a position, it is not very useful.

It’s okay to aim high with your positioning goals, but don’t aim for the impossible.

6) Is the position Believable?
Even if you could make the best quality sports car and sell it as the lowest priced automobile, customers might have trouble believing your claims. Any car priced that low could not possibly have that much quality, they would say, so they would not buy it. This is similar to the problem Wal-Mart faces whenever they try to get a piece of the higher-end quality/fashion apparel business. People do not believe that Wal-Mart’s apparel will have a high fashion image, no matter what they do.

7) Is the position Understandable?
The key here is simplicity. If you cannot explain your position in just a few words, then the customer will give up on trying to understand it. I knew someone who worked on one of the final positioning attempts for the now-defunct Montgomery Ward department store. It took several paragraphs of gobbledy-gook to try to explain how it fit into the marketplace. No consumer would ever be able to figure out that position. It didn’t stand a chance. All successful positioning share the idea of simplicity.

8) Is the position Profitable?
In the end, this is capitalism. We want to get a financial return on investment. Pick a position where winning will bring in lots of cash. How much are people willing to pay to get what you are trying to offer? During the dotcom boom, a lot of positions seemed to neglect this question.

SUMMARY
Achieving a winning position takes more than just working hard. One has to work hard on the right choice of position. That right position must be one which is desirable, sizable, ownable, preferable, achievable, believable, understandable, and profitable.

FINAL THOUGHTS
I knew someone in college who was finishing up getting her Ph.D. in Music History. She wrote a doctoral paper on a very obscure composer that almost no one has heard about, let alone cares about. This woman worked long and hard on getting that Ph.D. and enjoyed the subject matter. However, a few months before finishing her Ph. D., she started thinking about what came next.

At this point, she suddenly realized that her Ph.D. prepared her for absolutely nothing. She had no intention of teaching music history and could think of no other value in having the degree. She started to panic about what she was going to do with herself—how she would earn a living. All that time and effort to get that Ph.D. was starting to look to her like a total waste of time.

If she had years earlier asked herself questions like the ones posed in this blog, she would have realized that she had chosen the wrong career position. Then she could have taken all of that great effort and gotten to a far better career position.