Showing posts with label Prevention. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Prevention. Show all posts

Thursday, March 5, 2009

Strategic Planning Analogy #244: Identify Vs. Indemnify


THE STORY
How would you like it if your next doctor visit went like this?

Doctor: “According to this thermometer, you have a high fever. Don’t you know that high fevers are bad for you? Why would you go and get a high fever if you knew that fevers are bad?”

You: “I didn’t do it intentionally. I just woke up this morning feeling ill, so I came to you for help.”

Doctor: “Well my advice to you is to get rid of that fever. Until you get that temperature down to acceptable levels, you will continue to be sick.”

You: “But Doctor, how do I get rid of the fever?”

Doctor: “It’s your body. You figure it out.”

That kind of doctor we can do without.

ANALOGY
As worthless as that doctor discussion was, I’ve heard discussions similar to it take place in businesses. They go something like this…

Business Advisor: “According to this financial report, you have low sales. Don’t you know that low sales are bad for profits? Why would you go and let sales deteriorate so much if you knew that low sales are bad?

CEO: “I didn’t do it intentionally. The financials just seemed to go bad quickly, so I came to you for help.”

Business Advisor: “Well, my advice to you is to increase your sales. Until you get sales back up to acceptable levels, you will continue to have problems.”

CEO: “But Advisor, how do I get sales to rise?”

Business Advisor: “It’s your company. You are the expert, the CEO. You figure it out.”

This business advisor is no more useful than that doctor.

THE PRINCIPLE
The principle here has to do with the difference between the ability to “identify” and to “indemnify.” Both the doctor and the business advisor could identify a bad symptom (fever, low sales). Big deal. I’m pretty sure the patient knew he/she was feverish before seeing the doctor, and I’m sure the CEO already knew sales were low.

Worse yet, not only was the identification redundant, it didn’t lead to a cure. Identification of a problem is not the same thing as curing it. The doctor and the business advisor basically said “fix it yourself.” That’s pretty worthless advice.

If you want to be a useful business advisor, you need to go beyond being able to identify. You need to be able to indemnify.

According to the dictionary, indemnify has two meanings. The first has to do with insuring against future problems. The second has to do with trying to make things whole after a problem has occurred. If you want to be a useful strategic advisor, you should be providing concrete action plans in both of these areas.

1. Insuring Against Future Problems
People typically don’t just get sick. There is usually some underlying cause. Many illnesses come about due to bad eating habits and poor lifestyles. It was recently determined that even your risk of cancer increases when you overeat.

By the time the fever shows up, damage has already occurred. It would have been better if the person had been eating better, exercising more, and taking better care of themselves in advance. A good doctor would have been urging this better behavior, in order to prevent future diseases.

The same is true for business advisors. Getting companies to behave better now can help prevent a lot of bad outcomes in the future. Good eating habits are a lot like good investing habits. Are you feeding your development pipeline with lots of good projects in various stages of development? Starving the pipeline (bulimia) or stuffing all the money into your pockets as profits or bonuses (binging) will not provide long-term business health.

Eventually, the current profit machine will weaken. If there is nothing in the developmental pipeline to replace/supplement it, the company gets “sick.” A proper balanced investment diet is needed, which provides some near-term profits and some long-term investments.

Companies can also get fat and lazy, assuming that the current profit stream will go on forever—all by itself. However, as we saw in a prior blog (“Oh, My!”), all profit streams eventually go dry. We must continually exercise the company so that it can be nimble enough to react quickly to changing conditions.

Organizational structure and internal processes are fair game for strategic discussion, since unhealthy structure/processes can cause later financial diseases.
Is the business lifestyle sufficiently consumer oriented? As we saw in the last blog, ignoring the consumer eventually leads to financial illness as well.

When times were good, bad business habits were allowed to fester. But as we can see in the current poor economic environment, the weak are not surviving. It’s never too early to put in place good business behavior. Are you benchmarking to learn what healthy behavior looks like?

2. Make Things Whole After a Problem Occurs
Try as we might, we cannot prevent every disease. Business problems will occur. We need to do better than the advisor who just points it out. We need strategies that provide practical solutions to the problem.

Yes, we need our various business “thermometers,” which show us where the operational fever is. But once we identify the symptoms, we need to determine the core illness and help management provide a prescription for a cure.

In the current economic downturn, I have heard many people accurately assess the problem (“Our results are negatively impacted by the economy.”) but not everyone has a prescription to fix the problem. Abercrombie and Fitch tried to hold steady and wait out the recession. That hasn’t worked too well. There need to be action plans which try to make us whole again (or at least better than if we do nothing).

Strategists and business advisors need to get their hands dirty with the nitty gritty of the business. Lofty business missions and position statements go only so far. They are like maps, showing where you want to go. Just because you own a map of Paris does not mean you’ve successfully gotten to Paris. You still have to make the journey. After handing off the map, the strategist can’t walk away saying “job done.” There will be road blocks and detours along the way, requiring the strategist to help redraw the route.

Problems are going to happen. Course corrections will be needed to get back on track. Stay in the game, to help with the corrective action.

SUMMARY
Although the identification of issues is important, they are worthless if no action is taken to correct or prevent the problem resulting from these issues. Strategists can help a company avoid problems in the first place by helping a firm adopt healthy business habits. Second, they need to stick around to help develop specific corrective courses when problems occur.

FINAL THOUGHTS
Many financial “thermometers” are backward-looking. They tell us how sick we were in the past. It’s not very useful to give the doctor last month’s temperature. By the time we get the data, it is too late to stop the damage. Try to find leading indicators.

Monday, December 29, 2008

Analogy #229: Gutter Talk


THE STORY

A few days ago, we suffered torrential rain at my house.  The rain was coming down about as fast as it could, along with strong winds, thunder and lightening. 

 

As I looked out the window, I noticed that the gutters were plugged.  The rain overflowed the plugged gutters and just poured over the top of them onto the ground.

 

I thought about going out there to unplug them, but given the wind and the rain and the lightening, I didn't think being up on an aluminum ladder would be a good thing.  All I could do is stare out the window at the disaster.

 

I started thing about how one never thinks about cleaning the gutters except when it is raining and it is already too late to do so.  I should just schedule a date on my calendar to automatically check the gutters every autumn. 

 

THE ANALOGY

When you can see the disaster, it is easy to recognize the need for change.  However, by then, it can be too late to do anything.  I could see the need to clean my gutters when the rain was pouring out of the top, but it was too late to fix the problem.

 

The same is true in business.  By the time a business' failure is obvious, it is usually too late to fix the strategy.

 

Strategic planning shouldn't be a reaction to disaster.  It should be put on the calendar to be done on a regular basis, as I should have done with gutter cleaning.  That way, instead of reacting to disaster, one is proactively preventing disaster.

 

THE PRINCIPLE

The principle here is that prevention is better than correction.   Sure, one can fix a problem through correction, but usually there is some residual damage from those problems which slow you down—overcoming customer disappointments, internal political upheaval, lost cash flow, lost credibility, inability to meet debt obligations, etc.  Your strategic options in such an environment may be narrower. 

 

Just look at the US auto industry.  They are trying to correct a problem that has been growing worse for years.   The longer they waited, the more their "profit gutters" became plugged with bad business practices.  Then the storm came and their only hope was to call in for a government bailout.  If they had gotten in front of the problem and cleaned out the gutters early (before the storms), they could have prevented this mess. 

 

This was the successful path Caterpillar took.  They took on the bloated organizational structure and union issues early, when times were still good.  This allowed them to become a world leader. 

 

If you look at business press releases, about the only time you see the word "strategy" anymore is when a company announces that it has hired a firm to help it look for "strategic alternatives."  In plain talk, what they are saying is that they have so screwed up the business that they cannot fix it, so they are either looking for someone to buy them out or, if that doesn't work, they are going to liquidate the business.

 

In my mind, those are two lousy strategic alternatives (sell or close).  Where's option #3?  There is no third option, because the companies have waited too long.  The economic storms have already come, with high winds and lightening.  The pipeline to profits is plugged and it is too late to go out and unplug it.  Selling or liquidating is all that is left.  Given the economic storm we are currently in, I suspect we will be seeing a lot more of these "strategic alternative" announcements.

 

When the days are sunny and everything appears to be well, it is easy to forget about checking those gutters.  However, if you want to prevent the buildup of gunk in the gutters, you need to do regular maintenance during the good times.  

 

There's an old saying that "if it ain't broke, don't fix it."  In other words, as long as things appear to be working, leave them alone.  This concept, however, is disastrous when it comes to strategy.  The environment is always in a state of flux—ever changing.  Periodic strategic assessments and adjustments are needed to make sure the strategy is still properly aligned with that changing environment.  If you wait until the business model is completely broken, it may be unfixable.

 

Instead, the best time to make these strategic adjustments is when times are still good.  In the good times, consumers still like and trust you, and are more forgiving of change.  Your cash flow is still strong enough to fund the transition.  And most importantly, you still have time to make the changes before the storms come.

 

Therefore, I recommend two things.

 

1) Make periodic strategic assessments, even when times are good.  Get it on your calendar.  Get in front of change rather than playing catch-up after change has already created severe problems.

 

2) Create a method to monitor key elements critical to your strategy.  That way, you can tell when the gutter is just starting to get clogged, so that you can act quickly, before it becomes a problem.  They say "out of sight, out of mind."  If you want to keep awareness of potential problems on the top of mind, you need a dashboard which lets you see it and measure it all the time.

 

Yes, we are currently in the middle of an economic storm.  But eventually, this storm will go away and the sun will return.  When that time comes, use the reminder of all the grief you are dealing with today to motivate yourself to prevent future pain though these two suggestions.

 

SUMMARY

Don't wait until times get bad to examine your strategy.  By then, it can be too late.  Examine your strategy during the good times.  That way, you can prevent problems rather than fix problems.  Prevention is always easier than correction.

 

FINAL THOUGHTS

When the rainstorm ended, I belatedly went outside to clean out my gutters.  Unfortunately, I had two problems.  First, by the time the rain had ended, it was night and I was groping around in the dark trying to clean the gutters by "feel."  Second, I had no idea how much of the leaves had gotten into the downspouts and were clogging areas I could not get to.

 

I would have been much better off doing this on a sunny day before the buildup had occurred.